Week 17 Pigskin Pick 'em/Eliminator previewBy AJ Mass All good things must come to an end, folks. And as December winds to a close, we prepare for the final week of the NFL regular season. We've done pretty well so far this year, and Week 16 was no exception, as we went 10-6 in picking the winners straight-up. As for the dreaded spread, if you recall, last week we proposed the idea of doing the opposite of what we'd normally do. However, based on that theory, if we were to truly honor the spirit of reversing our decisions, we'd have to then do the opposite of our intention to roll with the opposite, and go with our original picks after all. If that's as confusing to you as it is to us, why don't we just agree to skip ahead to the ending? Here's the complete Week 17 rundown, along with some closing lines from movies. Hopefully they'll inspire us to make some sense of this final slate of games, and go out with a successful bang from the boomstick. As Ash told us at the end of "Army of Darkness," "Sure, I could have stayed in the past. I could have even been king. But in my own way, I am king. Hail to the king, baby."
Tale of the Tape Sunday, December 28 St. Louis at Atlanta (-14½) "The Accused": "I don't know, I'd like to go home and I'd like to play with my dog." -- Sometimes you can't go home again, Michael. In this case, the perennial dog has become the master, as the Falcons not only are in the playoffs with new leader Matt Ryan, but they can even finagle a first-round bye with a win and a Panthers loss. They'll finish this season in fine fashion. Prediction: Falcons by 21 New England at Buffalo (+6½) "The Cider House Rules": "Goodnight, you princes of Maine. You kings of New England." -- The Patriots, left for dead after Tom Brady's injury, now find themselves a victory and a little help away from winning the AFC East yet again. Whether or not they get that help, they'll take care of business here and stake claim to a share of the throne. Prediction: Patriots by 3 Kansas City at Cincinnati (-2½) "Apocalypse Now": "The horror. The horror." -- It's been a forgettable season for both of these teams, and it looks like Chad Ocho Cinco isn't even going to bother showing up for this debacle. Still, we're giving the slight nod to the home team, simply by virtue of their having a little more spring in their step as they win, rush into the locker room, pack up their stuff and begin to develop a case of amnesia for 2008. Prediction: Bengals by 1 Detroit at Green Bay (-10½) "The Magnificent Seven": "The old man was right: Only the farmers won. We lost. We'll always lose." -- Actually, a bunch of farmers would probably manage to win a game or two more than the Lions have this year. Prediction: Packers by 20 Tennessee at Indianapolis (+3½) "Goodfellas": "I'm an average nobody. I get to live the rest of my life like a schnook." -- With both these teams locked into their respective playoff positions, the starters will take most of this game off, leaving the door open for the "Average Joes" to take center stage for a day. Jim Sorgi may be used to this whole brief spotlight deal, but Vince Young has something to prove. We'll go with VY. Prediction: Titans by 5 Giants at Minnesota (-6½) "Drugstore Cowboy": "I was still alive. Hope they can keep me alive." -- The Vikings are still alive, but if they think the Giants are just going to roll over and let them into the playoffs, they need to think again. After this game, they'll have to hope the Texans beat the Bears, or else the Vikings won't be alive after all. Prediction: Giants by 3 Carolina at New Orleans (+3½) "Magnum Force": "A man's got to know his limitations." -- Drew Brees is attempting to break Dan Marino's single-season passing record, and to do so, he'll need more than 400 yards. If he throws caution to the wind in a vain attempt to get there, he'll fail miserably. However, if he paces himself and takes what the defense will give him, not only will he win the game, but he might just sneak up on that record to boot. Prediction: Saints by 2 Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-10½) "Lethal Weapon": "I'm too old for this." -- Oh, Romeo. Just hang it up. Prediction: Steelers by 15 Oakland at Tampa Bay (-13½) "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid": "Good. For a moment there, I thought we were in trouble." -- The bottom has fallen out of this Bucs team, but if they win today, there's still a chance they can make the playoffs if the Eagles can beat the Cowboys. We're not entirely sure that will happen, but the Bucs will certainly take care of their end of the bargain. Prediction: Bucs by 14 Chicago at Houston (-3½) "Pulp Fiction": "I think we oughta leave now." "That's probably a good idea." -- The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men, so says Samuel L. Jackson as he quotes Ezekiel 25:17. The path of the Bears goes through Houston, and if they manage to steal another game from the jaws of defeat, they'd best get out of Dodge as quickly as possible. Prediction: Bears by 2 Miami at Jets (-2½) "Midnight Cowboy": "OK, folks, nothin' to worry about. Just a little illness. We'll be in Miami in just a few minutes." -- Going from a one-win season to the postseason is a huge mountain to climb, and now, one victory away, the altitude sickness may set in. Can this team pull off a huge victory on the road against another team that is fighting for their playoff lives? We just don't think so. Prediction: Jets by 5 Dallas at Philadelphia (-1½) "Raging Bull": "I'm the boss, I'm the boss, I'm the boss, I'm the boss, I'm the boss ... boss, boss, boss, boss, boss, boss." -- Wade Phillips can try to convince himself that he's still going to be the boss of the Cowboys when this week's work is done, but we all know there's only one boss in Dallas, and he's going to be in a sour mood after the Eagles win. Prediction: Eagles by 6 Jacksonville at Baltimore (-6½) "Gallipoli": "How fast are you going to run?" "As fast as a leopard." "Then let's see you do it." -- Hand it to Le'Ron McClain. Hand it to Willis McGahee. Insert Troy Smith late and let him sprint around the backfield looking for an open receiver. This one should be easy. Prediction: Ravens by 14 Washington at San Francisco (-3½) "The Shawshank Redemption": "I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope." -- I hope Mike Singletary's team pulls this one out for him and the team keeps him around for next season and beyond, because he's good for the game and will be good for San Francisco. Prediction: 49ers by 1 Seattle at Arizona (-5½) "Nothing in Common": "You're the last person I ever thought would come through for me." -- Seriously, back in August, did anyone really think Kurt Warner would be leading this team to a division title? Yes, the past few weeks have been pathetic, but this is the week they get back on track. Prediction: Cardinals by 8 Denver at San Diego (-8½) "The Piano": "There is a silence where no sound may be, in the cold grave, under the deep, deep sea." -- This is where the Broncos will reside, as their monumental collapse comes to a merciful end, and the taunting of Ed Hochuli can also be buried once and for all. Prediction: Chargers by 10
Eliminator
The ESPN Eliminator requires that you make one and only one pick each week. You win and you live to pick again. You lose and it's all over. In Week 16, our top pick of the Niners squeaked by, and while the Eagles blew the chance to control their own fate, we nevertheless claimed 13 of 15 available points for the week and our overall rating inched up to 81.6 percent for the season. If only the Redskins had won in Week 6, we'd be making a pick for perfection, but alas, that dream ended early. But hey, that's what makes this contest so darn hard to win. For this week, our options are limited, but still, we believe in our selections, especially Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. And while we were tempted to pick the Packers over the Lions, we're still not 100 percent certain Detroit doesn't make a deal with the devil to avoid the goose egg of all goose eggs. After all, in the words of Keyser Soze, "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." Here's the full listing of our top picks for this week's Eliminator, in order of our confidence ... and like that, we're gone.
DEFCON 5: Falcons Good luck to all of you, and for those who didn't do as well as they might have liked with their 2008 picks, we offer you these words of wisdom from "The Bad News Bears": "Just wait 'til next year!" AJ Mass is a fantasy football, baseball and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here. |
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